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There are 1499 unclaimed delegates remaining. You need 1144 to win the nomination. Given the weird way the early contests are run, it's literally impossible to be sure how many delegates each candidate has ATM. Politico.com's estimates are 424 for Romney, and 212 for Santorum. I think that overstates Santorum's strength, and understates Romney's, but not outrageously so. We'll go with that.
Romney, then needs 720, or 48% of those remaining delegates for an outright win, and Santorum needs 932, or 62%. To force a competitive convention, then Romney's opponents altogether need to claim 780 delegates among themselves, in any combination. That basically means holding Romney to under 48%. I don't think that will happen.
So far, Romney's taken 54% of the claimed delegates. If we add the unallocated (party) delegates into the pool but don't assign them, then Romney's gotten 49%. If we assume (as I think likely) that most of the party delegates will go for Romney, then his numbers only become better.
A lot can change between now and then. Jon Huntsman can still technically win, but I really don't expect that. Neither do I really expect the relative rates of accumulation to change very much. Barring major disasters, scandals, etc, I expect Romney to take the nomination, and then go on to edge out Obama in the general election.
Romney, then needs 720, or 48% of those remaining delegates for an outright win, and Santorum needs 932, or 62%. To force a competitive convention, then Romney's opponents altogether need to claim 780 delegates among themselves, in any combination. That basically means holding Romney to under 48%. I don't think that will happen.
So far, Romney's taken 54% of the claimed delegates. If we add the unallocated (party) delegates into the pool but don't assign them, then Romney's gotten 49%. If we assume (as I think likely) that most of the party delegates will go for Romney, then his numbers only become better.
A lot can change between now and then. Jon Huntsman can still technically win, but I really don't expect that. Neither do I really expect the relative rates of accumulation to change very much. Barring major disasters, scandals, etc, I expect Romney to take the nomination, and then go on to edge out Obama in the general election.
